Probability Estimates: 2024
Ideally, when we say we think something is likely (or unlikely), we should revisit our prediction later once we know the actual outcome. It’s nice to be right.
However, sometimes it’s understandable to get the outcome wrong if we correctly state our uncertainty. If I think something will happen with a 60% chance and it doesn’t, I’m not nearly as “wrong” as if I’d predicted the event with a 99% chance. Similarly though, if every day I predicted that the sun would rise the following morning with 60% probability, I would be wrong in a different sense: systematically underconfident.
Evaluating probability estimates isn’t a new idea – I heard of it originally in Nate Silver’s book The Signal and the Noise, which itself (if I recall correctly) traced the idea to SuperForecasting by Philip Tetlock.
FiveThirtyEight (formerly run by Silver) actually does annual “calibrations” in which they assess all of their predictions and basically make sure that of the things they said would happen 80% of the time, roughly 8/10 really did happen. If more than 8/10 happened, then they were underconfident. If fewer, then they were overconfident.
This exercise is useful not just in checking your fancy statistical models but also in evaluating your own predictions, particularly in ensuring you don’t have a bias toward overconfidence (which I suspect is far more common than the opposite). I was inspired by Matt Yglesias’ annual predictions and self evaluations1, so this year some friends and I will be “competing” by predicting various 2024 events.
See our estimates below – and I explained my own numbers in this followup post.
Business & Tech
Abhisek Gupta
Alex Van Fossen
Brian Van Fossen
David Schmitz
Ethan Swan
Fernando Garcia
Greg Moore
Lizz Hyde
Phil Anderson
Raluca Pavel
Tommy Callan
Average
Alphabet is ordered to divest a business unit, by federal court or commission.
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.08
0.15
0.15
0.15
0.85
0.2
0.45
0.3
0.25
Amazon is ordered to divest a business unit, by federal court or commission.
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.06
0.05
0.15
0.15
0.70
0.02
0.45
0.3
0.21
Andy Jassy is still the CEO of Amazon at the end of the year.
0.7
0.9
0.75
0.7
0.93
0.7
0.7
0.5
0.999
0.87
0.9
0.79
Meta is ordered to divest a business unit, by federal court or commission.
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.15
0.80
0.02
0.45
0.3
0.22
Nvidia remains in the top 10 American companies by market cap at the end of 2024.
0.7
0.4
0.95
0.4
0.45
0.4
0.95
0.75
0.999
1
0.5
0.68
OpenAI releases (or allows a public preview of) a product branded "GPT-5" or "ChatGPT-5".
0.7
0.7
0.5
0.7
0.65
0.6
0.87
0.85
0.4
0.95
0.1
0.64
Sam Altman is still the CEO of OpenAI at the end of 2024.
0.5
0.8
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.9
0.90
0.98
0.8
1
0.80
The Fed raises interest rates at least once in 2024 (even if they also decrease rates).
0.01
0.2
0.3
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.1
0.40
0.2
1
0.25
0.34
The S&P 500 closes the year higher than it began.
0.7
0.9
0.75
0.6
0.72
0.9
0.8
0.65
0.5
0.68
1
0.75
The X/Twitter platform still exists at the end of the year: you can log in, share content, and view content.
0.95
0.3
0.9
0.96
0.85
0.85
0.4
0.90
0.9999
1
1
0.83
Tim Cook is still the CEO of Apple at the end of the year.
0.8
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.7
0.7
0.80
0.999
1
0.9
0.86
Geopolitics
Abhisek Gupta
Alex Van Fossen
Brian Van Fossen
David Schmitz
Ethan Swan
Fernando Garcia
Greg Moore
Lizz Hyde
Phil Anderson
Raluca Pavel
Tommy Callan
Average
Benjamin Netanyahu is still the prime minister of Israel at the end of 2024.
0.1
0.90
0.7
0.9
0.65
0.9
0.9
0.65
0.99
0.9
0.2
0.71
China lands ground forces on the island of Taiwan
0.01
0.05
0.05
0.03
0.03
0.04
0.01
0.65
0.01
0.26
0
0.10
Narendra Modi is still the prime minister of India at the end of 2024.
0.75
0.95
0.7
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.95
0.85
0.95
1
1
0.90
Nuclear weapons are used in an attack (not just tested) somewhere in the world.
0.001
0.05
0.01
0.001
0.1
0.01
0
0.001
0.0001
0
0
0.02
Pope Francis (Jorge Mario Bergoglio) is still the active pope at the end of 2024.
0.9
0.87
0.8
0.94
0.9
0.80
0.8
0.50
0.7
1
1
0.84
Russia and Ukraine sign a truce to stop all combat operations and honor it until the end of the year
0.5
0.2
0.20
0.2
0.65
0.55
0.05
0.15
0.1
0.15
0.1
0.26
Vladimir Putin is still the president of Russia at the end of 2024.
0.9
0.90
0.8
0.97
0.85
0.8
0.9
0.85
0.99
1
1
0.91
Vlodymyr Zelenskyy is still the president of Ukraine at the end of 2024.
0.75
0.95
0.95
0.95
0.8
0.9
0.9
0.55
0.7
0.8
1
0.84
Xi Jinping is still the premier of China at the end of 2024.
0.9
0.95
0.8
0.995
0.98
0.9
0.95
0.85
0.99
1
1
0.94
Sports & Culture
Abhisek Gupta
Alex Van Fossen
Brian Van Fossen
David Schmitz
Ethan Swan
Fernando Garcia
Greg Moore
Lizz Hyde
Phil Anderson
Raluca Pavel
Tommy Callan
Average
LeBron James and his son LeBron Jr (aka "Bronny") are under contract with the same NBA team at any point during 2024.
0.2
0.05
0.05
0.09
0.2
0.6
0.2
0.08
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.18
LeBron James retires from or otherwise leaves the NBA, and does not change his mind before the end of the year.
0.01
0.5
0.5
0.6
0.15
0.3
0
0.25
0.01
0
0.2
0.23
Lionel Messi retires from or otherwise leaves the MLS, and does not change his mind before the end of the year.
0.1
0.20
0.5
0.2
0.3
0.3
0
0.50
0.05
0.1
0.2
0.22
Mainstream news outlets report definitively that Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce have broken up.
0.2
0.50
0.3
0.4
0.25
0.4
1
0.35
0.9
0.7
1
0.55
One of the three championship favorites (Boston Celtics, Denver Nuggets, Milwaukee Bucks) wins the 2024 NBA title.
0.8
0.4
0.6
0.5
0.8
0.8
0.9
0.75
0.3
0.95
0.6
0.67
Taylor Swift releases an album of composed primarily of entirely new music.
0.01
0.70
0.6
0.7
0.35
0.3
0.89
0.95
0.9
0.1
0.5
0.55
The US wins the gold medal in basketball at the Paris Olympics.
0.9
0.7
0.6
0.8
0.85
0.5
0.9
0.75
0.99
1
0.9
0.81
The US wins the most gold medals of any country (or ties for first) in the Paris Olympics.
0.6
0.65
0.95
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.75
0.15
0.4
0.87
0.95
0.62
US Politics
Abhisek Gupta
Alex Van Fossen
Brian Van Fossen
David Schmitz
Ethan Swan
Fernando Garcia
Greg Moore
Lizz Hyde
Phil Anderson
Raluca Pavel
Tommy Callan
Average
2024 elections give Democrats control of the House of Representatives.
0.5
0.6
0.6
0.3
0.55
0.45
0.6
0.58
0.3
0.5
0.8
0.53
2024 elections give Democrats control of the Senate.
0.3
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.3
0.45
0.6
0.52
0.45
0.3
0.75
0.44
A Democrat candidate who isn't Joe Biden is elected president.
0.01
0.05
0.1
0.2
0.04
0.01
0.05
0.1
0.15
0
0.1
0.07
A Republican candidate who isn't Donald Trump is elected president.
0.1
0.05
0.25
0.1
0.01
0.3
0.05
0.05
0.0001
0
0.1
0.09
At least one member of the US Supreme Court steps down or dies during 2024.
0.01
0.1
0.3
0.1
0.2
0.4
0.03
0.92
0.01
0.65
1
0.34
At least one third-party US presidential candidate gets 3% or more of the popular vote.
0.9
0.01
0.03
0.07
0.15
0.1
0.05
0.45
0.9
1
0.75
0.40
Donald Trump is convicted of a federal crime.
0.3
0.50
0.15
0.5
0.15
0.6
0.7
0.85
0.05
1
1
0.53
Donald Trump is elected president.
0.6
0.30
0.15
0.4
0.42
0.3
0.5
0.2
0.4999
0.48
0.4
0.39
Joe Biden is impeached.
0.4
0.005
0.05
0.03
0.15
0.2
0.02
0.40
0.05
0
0.9
0.20
Joe Biden is re-elected president.
0.4
0.60
0.5
0.3
0.53
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.35
0.52
0.4
0.46
President Jimmy Carter is still alive at the end of 2024.
0.001
0.05
0.4
0.02
0.05
0.6
0.1
0.30
0.01
0
0.2
0.16
The US president elect dies between the election and the end of 2024.
0.001
0.005
0.05
0.06
0.01
0.2
0.001
0.70
0.001
0.2
0
0.11
|
Abhisek Gupta
|
Alex Van Fossen
|
Brian Van Fossen
|
David Schmitz
|
Ethan Swan
|
Fernando Garcia
|
Greg Moore
|
Lizz Hyde
|
Phil Anderson
|
Raluca Pavel
|
Tommy Callan
|
Average
|
|
| Alphabet is ordered to divest a business unit, by federal court or commission. | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.08 | 0.15 | 0.15 | 0.15 | 0.85 | 0.2 | 0.45 | 0.3 | 0.25 |
| Amazon is ordered to divest a business unit, by federal court or commission. | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.06 | 0.05 | 0.15 | 0.15 | 0.70 | 0.02 | 0.45 | 0.3 | 0.21 |
| Andy Jassy is still the CEO of Amazon at the end of the year. | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.75 | 0.7 | 0.93 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.999 | 0.87 | 0.9 | 0.79 |
| Meta is ordered to divest a business unit, by federal court or commission. | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.05 | 0.1 | 0.15 | 0.15 | 0.80 | 0.02 | 0.45 | 0.3 | 0.22 |
| Nvidia remains in the top 10 American companies by market cap at the end of 2024. | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.95 | 0.4 | 0.45 | 0.4 | 0.95 | 0.75 | 0.999 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.68 |
| OpenAI releases (or allows a public preview of) a product branded "GPT-5" or "ChatGPT-5". | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.65 | 0.6 | 0.87 | 0.85 | 0.4 | 0.95 | 0.1 | 0.64 |
| Sam Altman is still the CEO of OpenAI at the end of 2024. | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.90 | 0.98 | 0.8 | 1 | 0.80 |
| The Fed raises interest rates at least once in 2024 (even if they also decrease rates). | 0.01 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.40 | 0.2 | 1 | 0.25 | 0.34 |
| The S&P 500 closes the year higher than it began. | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.75 | 0.6 | 0.72 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.65 | 0.5 | 0.68 | 1 | 0.75 |
| The X/Twitter platform still exists at the end of the year: you can log in, share content, and view content. | 0.95 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 0.96 | 0.85 | 0.85 | 0.4 | 0.90 | 0.9999 | 1 | 1 | 0.83 |
| Tim Cook is still the CEO of Apple at the end of the year. | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.80 | 0.999 | 1 | 0.9 | 0.86 |
|
Abhisek Gupta
|
Alex Van Fossen
|
Brian Van Fossen
|
David Schmitz
|
Ethan Swan
|
Fernando Garcia
|
Greg Moore
|
Lizz Hyde
|
Phil Anderson
|
Raluca Pavel
|
Tommy Callan
|
Average
|
|
| Benjamin Netanyahu is still the prime minister of Israel at the end of 2024. | 0.1 | 0.90 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.65 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.65 | 0.99 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.71 |
| China lands ground forces on the island of Taiwan | 0.01 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.65 | 0.01 | 0.26 | 0 | 0.10 |
| Narendra Modi is still the prime minister of India at the end of 2024. | 0.75 | 0.95 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.95 | 0.85 | 0.95 | 1 | 1 | 0.90 |
| Nuclear weapons are used in an attack (not just tested) somewhere in the world. | 0.001 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.001 | 0.1 | 0.01 | 0 | 0.001 | 0.0001 | 0 | 0 | 0.02 |
| Pope Francis (Jorge Mario Bergoglio) is still the active pope at the end of 2024. | 0.9 | 0.87 | 0.8 | 0.94 | 0.9 | 0.80 | 0.8 | 0.50 | 0.7 | 1 | 1 | 0.84 |
| Russia and Ukraine sign a truce to stop all combat operations and honor it until the end of the year | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.20 | 0.2 | 0.65 | 0.55 | 0.05 | 0.15 | 0.1 | 0.15 | 0.1 | 0.26 |
| Vladimir Putin is still the president of Russia at the end of 2024. | 0.9 | 0.90 | 0.8 | 0.97 | 0.85 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.85 | 0.99 | 1 | 1 | 0.91 |
| Vlodymyr Zelenskyy is still the president of Ukraine at the end of 2024. | 0.75 | 0.95 | 0.95 | 0.95 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.55 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 1 | 0.84 |
| Xi Jinping is still the premier of China at the end of 2024. | 0.9 | 0.95 | 0.8 | 0.995 | 0.98 | 0.9 | 0.95 | 0.85 | 0.99 | 1 | 1 | 0.94 |
Sports & Culture
Abhisek Gupta
Alex Van Fossen
Brian Van Fossen
David Schmitz
Ethan Swan
Fernando Garcia
Greg Moore
Lizz Hyde
Phil Anderson
Raluca Pavel
Tommy Callan
Average
LeBron James and his son LeBron Jr (aka "Bronny") are under contract with the same NBA team at any point during 2024.
0.2
0.05
0.05
0.09
0.2
0.6
0.2
0.08
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.18
LeBron James retires from or otherwise leaves the NBA, and does not change his mind before the end of the year.
0.01
0.5
0.5
0.6
0.15
0.3
0
0.25
0.01
0
0.2
0.23
Lionel Messi retires from or otherwise leaves the MLS, and does not change his mind before the end of the year.
0.1
0.20
0.5
0.2
0.3
0.3
0
0.50
0.05
0.1
0.2
0.22
Mainstream news outlets report definitively that Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce have broken up.
0.2
0.50
0.3
0.4
0.25
0.4
1
0.35
0.9
0.7
1
0.55
One of the three championship favorites (Boston Celtics, Denver Nuggets, Milwaukee Bucks) wins the 2024 NBA title.
0.8
0.4
0.6
0.5
0.8
0.8
0.9
0.75
0.3
0.95
0.6
0.67
Taylor Swift releases an album of composed primarily of entirely new music.
0.01
0.70
0.6
0.7
0.35
0.3
0.89
0.95
0.9
0.1
0.5
0.55
The US wins the gold medal in basketball at the Paris Olympics.
0.9
0.7
0.6
0.8
0.85
0.5
0.9
0.75
0.99
1
0.9
0.81
The US wins the most gold medals of any country (or ties for first) in the Paris Olympics.
0.6
0.65
0.95
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.75
0.15
0.4
0.87
0.95
0.62
US Politics
Abhisek Gupta
Alex Van Fossen
Brian Van Fossen
David Schmitz
Ethan Swan
Fernando Garcia
Greg Moore
Lizz Hyde
Phil Anderson
Raluca Pavel
Tommy Callan
Average
2024 elections give Democrats control of the House of Representatives.
0.5
0.6
0.6
0.3
0.55
0.45
0.6
0.58
0.3
0.5
0.8
0.53
2024 elections give Democrats control of the Senate.
0.3
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.3
0.45
0.6
0.52
0.45
0.3
0.75
0.44
A Democrat candidate who isn't Joe Biden is elected president.
0.01
0.05
0.1
0.2
0.04
0.01
0.05
0.1
0.15
0
0.1
0.07
A Republican candidate who isn't Donald Trump is elected president.
0.1
0.05
0.25
0.1
0.01
0.3
0.05
0.05
0.0001
0
0.1
0.09
At least one member of the US Supreme Court steps down or dies during 2024.
0.01
0.1
0.3
0.1
0.2
0.4
0.03
0.92
0.01
0.65
1
0.34
At least one third-party US presidential candidate gets 3% or more of the popular vote.
0.9
0.01
0.03
0.07
0.15
0.1
0.05
0.45
0.9
1
0.75
0.40
Donald Trump is convicted of a federal crime.
0.3
0.50
0.15
0.5
0.15
0.6
0.7
0.85
0.05
1
1
0.53
Donald Trump is elected president.
0.6
0.30
0.15
0.4
0.42
0.3
0.5
0.2
0.4999
0.48
0.4
0.39
Joe Biden is impeached.
0.4
0.005
0.05
0.03
0.15
0.2
0.02
0.40
0.05
0
0.9
0.20
Joe Biden is re-elected president.
0.4
0.60
0.5
0.3
0.53
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.35
0.52
0.4
0.46
President Jimmy Carter is still alive at the end of 2024.
0.001
0.05
0.4
0.02
0.05
0.6
0.1
0.30
0.01
0
0.2
0.16
The US president elect dies between the election and the end of 2024.
0.001
0.005
0.05
0.06
0.01
0.2
0.001
0.70
0.001
0.2
0
0.11
|
Abhisek Gupta
|
Alex Van Fossen
|
Brian Van Fossen
|
David Schmitz
|
Ethan Swan
|
Fernando Garcia
|
Greg Moore
|
Lizz Hyde
|
Phil Anderson
|
Raluca Pavel
|
Tommy Callan
|
Average
|
|
| LeBron James and his son LeBron Jr (aka "Bronny") are under contract with the same NBA team at any point during 2024. | 0.2 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.09 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.08 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.18 |
| LeBron James retires from or otherwise leaves the NBA, and does not change his mind before the end of the year. | 0.01 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.15 | 0.3 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.01 | 0 | 0.2 | 0.23 |
| Lionel Messi retires from or otherwise leaves the MLS, and does not change his mind before the end of the year. | 0.1 | 0.20 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0 | 0.50 | 0.05 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.22 |
| Mainstream news outlets report definitively that Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce have broken up. | 0.2 | 0.50 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.25 | 0.4 | 1 | 0.35 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 1 | 0.55 |
| One of the three championship favorites (Boston Celtics, Denver Nuggets, Milwaukee Bucks) wins the 2024 NBA title. | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.75 | 0.3 | 0.95 | 0.6 | 0.67 |
| Taylor Swift releases an album of composed primarily of entirely new music. | 0.01 | 0.70 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.35 | 0.3 | 0.89 | 0.95 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 0.55 |
| The US wins the gold medal in basketball at the Paris Olympics. | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.85 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.75 | 0.99 | 1 | 0.9 | 0.81 |
| The US wins the most gold medals of any country (or ties for first) in the Paris Olympics. | 0.6 | 0.65 | 0.95 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.75 | 0.15 | 0.4 | 0.87 | 0.95 | 0.62 |
|
Abhisek Gupta
|
Alex Van Fossen
|
Brian Van Fossen
|
David Schmitz
|
Ethan Swan
|
Fernando Garcia
|
Greg Moore
|
Lizz Hyde
|
Phil Anderson
|
Raluca Pavel
|
Tommy Callan
|
Average
|
|
| 2024 elections give Democrats control of the House of Representatives. | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.55 | 0.45 | 0.6 | 0.58 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.53 |
| 2024 elections give Democrats control of the Senate. | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.45 | 0.6 | 0.52 | 0.45 | 0.3 | 0.75 | 0.44 |
| A Democrat candidate who isn't Joe Biden is elected president. | 0.01 | 0.05 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 0.1 | 0.15 | 0 | 0.1 | 0.07 |
| A Republican candidate who isn't Donald Trump is elected president. | 0.1 | 0.05 | 0.25 | 0.1 | 0.01 | 0.3 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.0001 | 0 | 0.1 | 0.09 |
| At least one member of the US Supreme Court steps down or dies during 2024. | 0.01 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.03 | 0.92 | 0.01 | 0.65 | 1 | 0.34 |
| At least one third-party US presidential candidate gets 3% or more of the popular vote. | 0.9 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.07 | 0.15 | 0.1 | 0.05 | 0.45 | 0.9 | 1 | 0.75 | 0.40 |
| Donald Trump is convicted of a federal crime. | 0.3 | 0.50 | 0.15 | 0.5 | 0.15 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.85 | 0.05 | 1 | 1 | 0.53 |
| Donald Trump is elected president. | 0.6 | 0.30 | 0.15 | 0.4 | 0.42 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.4999 | 0.48 | 0.4 | 0.39 |
| Joe Biden is impeached. | 0.4 | 0.005 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0.15 | 0.2 | 0.02 | 0.40 | 0.05 | 0 | 0.9 | 0.20 |
| Joe Biden is re-elected president. | 0.4 | 0.60 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.53 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.35 | 0.52 | 0.4 | 0.46 |
| President Jimmy Carter is still alive at the end of 2024. | 0.001 | 0.05 | 0.4 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.30 | 0.01 | 0 | 0.2 | 0.16 |
| The US president elect dies between the election and the end of 2024. | 0.001 | 0.005 | 0.05 | 0.06 | 0.01 | 0.2 | 0.001 | 0.70 | 0.001 | 0.2 | 0 | 0.11 |